Ever since humans could first observe sunspots about 400 years ago, we’ve been using them to try to define the solar cycle. Approximately every 11 years, solar activity such as sunspots and solar flares ebbs and flows, causing changes to weather patterns on Earth and occasionally threatening telecommunications. Predicting these changes reliably could help everyone from farmers to the military.  

Traditionally, scientists have used the concept of a “solar minimum,” when solar activity is reduced, to mark the beginning of each cycle. But the “solar minimum” framework is somewhat arbitrary and imprecise, explains Robert Leamon, research scientist at the Partnership for Heliophysics and Space Environment Research (PHaSER), a UMBC partnership with NASA.

Leamon led new research showing that a “solar clock” based on the sun’s magnetic field, rather than the presence or absence of sunspots, can precisely describe and predict many key changes throughout the solar cycle. The new framework offers a significant improvement over the traditional sunspot method, because it can predict surges in dangerous solar flares or changing weather trends years in advance.

Specifically, the new research, published in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences, shows that the solar cycle operates as a distinct sequence of events. Notable, and sometimes abrupt, changes occur at each one-fifth of a cycle. That’s true regardless of the exact length of a given cycle, which can vary by several months to a year. In a nod to music enthusiasts, Leamon and colleagues call it a “circle of fifths.”

Finding the landmarks

The new paper by Leamon, Scott McIntosh, at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and Alan Title, at the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, builds on work by Leamon, McIntosh, and Daniel Marsh, also at NCAR, published in 2020. That paper demonstrated the existence of a solar cycle phenomenon the research team dubbed “the terminator.” 

The sun’s magnetic field changes direction each solar cycle, but there is overlap between consecutive cycles. The sun’s magnetic field is sometimes called the polar field, because it either points to one of the sun’s poles or the other. A terminator marks when the previous cycle’s polar field has completely disappeared from the sun’s surface, and is quickly followed by a dramatic rise in solar activity.

The new paper points to additional landmarks along the journey through a full solar cycle from terminator to terminator. These landmarks are clearer and more consistent than using sunspots as a guide to cycle length. For example, “The max number of sunspots doesn’t quite align with when the polar field reverses, but the polar field reversal happens at exactly one-fifth of the cycle going from terminator to terminator,” Leamon says.

At two-fifths of a cycle, dark areas called “polar coronal holes” re-form at the sun’s poles. At three-fifths of a cycle, the last X-flare, a class of very large and potentially dangerous solar flares, occurs. At four-fifths, sunspots are at a minimum—but this landmark is less consistent. And then the sun passes through another terminator, after which solar activity rapidly picks up again. Other phenomena, such as UV emissions, also line up nicely on the fifths.

Symptoms and causes

The team picked out patterns in data collected daily by two ground-based observatories. The Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Penticton, Canada has measured solar radio flux, which serves as a useful proxy for solar activity, daily since 1947. The Wilcox Solar Observatory at Stanford University has collected daily measurements of magnetic fields on the sun’s surface since 1975. 

Once the team noticed the changes that occur at exactly one-fifth of a cycle, they asked, “How many different solar things can we look at? And then we realized they all overlap on this same set of fifths,” Leamon says. Different parameters shift at different points on the cycle, but “everything is tied to these five landmarks.”

This new theory of a solar clock changes the focus from sunspots to shifts in magnetic field. “It’s almost like symptoms and causes,” Leamon says. While sunspots are an important symptom, the magnetic field is the underlying cause driving the solar cycle.

The longest threads

This shift in framework improves researchers’ ability to predict events in the solar cycle more precisely and further in advance, which gives people like satellite operators time to make preparations as needed based on predicted solar activity. Once observatories detect an initial polar field reversal, the precise length of the first fifth of the cycle is set. That means the timing of the other fifths (and their associated events) is a simple matter of multiplication.

The new framework also puts tighter bounds on the period within the cycle when severe flares are expected, which is useful information for people on Earth. Rather than a gradual shift from minimum to maximum activity, the period from terminator to about three-fifths of a cycle seems to be the peak period for flares, with a rapid drop-off after that point until the next terminator. The current cycle began after a terminator in December 2021, and the new framework predicts the last major flares should occur in mid-2027. 

Leamon points to a quote by physicist Richard Feynman to explain the value of a theory like this one, that accounts for many variables within a system. “Nature uses only the longest threads to weave her patterns, so that each small piece of her fabric reveals the organization of the entire tapestry,” Feynman said. Leamon and colleagues’ new theory is an example of one of these long threads—precisely predicting many aspects of the solar cycle with a single, simple parameter, and making it easier for humans to be ready for changes driven by the sun.  

The Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution is conducting our fall Research Assistant recruitment, for positions starting in summer 2023. Each year we employ approximately fifteen research assistants for two year appointments, preferably beginning between June 1 and August 1, 2023. This cycle, we are seeking to hire approximately eight new assistants. This is an excellent opportunity for recent graduates!

Read more here: https://www.brookings.edu/join-the-top-ranked-think-tank-for-domestic-economic-policy/

Apply here: https://social.icims.com/viewjob/po16601401412824f42e

Applicants should have a Bachelor’s degree by summer 2023 in Economics, Mathematics/Statistics, Public Policy, or other Social Sciences with a minor in Economics and will need to submit a cover letter, resume, two letters of recommendation, and a transcript. 

The application deadline is October 14, 2022.

Clarksville Elementary School is looking for people who want to join our amazing school community!  We have several opportunities for you!  Please see below for more information.

Daily Permanent Guest (Substitute) Teacher 

This position is Monday - Friday under the direction of administration. The daily permanent substitute is a substitute teacher who comes to school every day and covers an unfilled substitute job. If there are no unfilled substitute jobs on any given day, then the daily permanent substitute will be provided a schedule of other duties to help support students and staff.  Please send an email to our Assistant Principal at cherilyn_brown@hcpss.org or call 410-313-7050 if you are interested in learning more!

• Start Date: 8/29/22 and runs through the last day of school
• Hours: 8:35 am - 4:05 pm
• Daily Pay Rate: 
  • Retired Substitute Teacher - $169.00
  • Degreed Substitute Teacher - $169.00                                      
  • Non-degreed Substitute Teacher - $157.00 

Long-term Guest (Substitute) Teacher 

We are seeking a Long-Term Sub to provide daily instruction in the following areas on the dates listed below:

• 3^rd Grade – beginning Thursday, August 18^th – Wednesday, November 16^th
• Art - beginning Thursday, August 18 – Thursday, October 6^th

Please send an email to our Assistant Principal at cherilyn_brown@hcpss.org or call 410-313-7050 if you are interested in learning more!

Student Assistant Positions and Temporary Employee Positions 

We are looking for caring and compassionate individuals to assist students with disabilities who require direct adult supervision throughout the school day. The position works under the daily supervision of the school administration and the direction of a special education team leader, teacher and/or a classroom teacher. Some experience working with children or individuals with disabilities preferred. Details regarding the position are listed below.

• Student Assistants are HCPSS employees
• Temporary Employee (TE) positions are with Social Service Consultants, Ltd.
• The hours are 9:15 AM – 3:45 PM Monday-Friday.

• To apply for the Student Assistant position, please click this link and complete the application process for Student Assistant.
• To apply for Temporary Employee positions, please email Robert Tencher at rtencher@gmail.com to request an application packet. Please specify the school you are interested in. You can also apply using this link.

 Please contact our Assistant Principal at cherilyn_brown@hcpss.org or call 410-313-7050 when you have completed all parts of the application

General Discharge Permit For Discharges Associated with Construction Activities

Maryland General Permit No. 20-CP

On September 25, 2020, the Department published notice of its tentative determination to renew the current general discharge permit (14GP) for stormwater associated with construction activities and replace it with proposed General Discharge Permit No. 20CP (NPDES No. MDRC). The proposed permit applies to stormwater discharges from construction activities in the state of Maryland that will disturb one or more acres of land, or will disturb less than one acre of land but are part of a common plan of development or sale that will ultimately disturb one or more acres of land. The Department held a public hearing regarding the tentative determination on November 10, 2020. Notice of the hearing was included in those publications.  The public comment period concluded on December 24, 2020.  

The Department is preparing a final permit determination and is now informally seeking comments limited to these four areas: addressing climate change, timeframes related to gaining authorization, threatened and endangered species, and water quality-based limits. Further background and details on these proposed changes from the tentative determination may be found on the Department's website at: https://mdewwp.page.link/CGP.

Written comments concerning these potential changes may be considered in the preparation of a final determination. You may send your comments to  Paul Hlavinka at paul.hlavinka@maryland.gov, by mail to Maryland Department of the Environment, 1800 Washington Blvd., Suite 455, Baltimore, MD  21230-1708, or by (fax) 410-537-3163, by close of business on or before Monday, September 12, 2022.

Based in Baltimore, MD, Everyman Theatre seeks an imaginative, strategic, and pragmatic leader in the role of Director of Education + Community Engagement.