Learning What Matters: Causal Time Series Modeling for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction

Authored by Emam Hossain (PhD Candidate), Dr. Md Osman Gani

Abstract:

Conventional machine learning and deep learning models typically rely on correlation-based learning, which often fails to distinguish genuine causal relationships from spurious associations, limiting their robustness, interpretability, and ability to generalize. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a causality-aware deep learning framework that integrates Multivariate Granger Causality (MVGC) and PCMCI+ for causal feature selection within a hybrid neural architecture. Leveraging 43 years (1979–2021) of Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) data and associated ocean-atmospheric variables at daily and monthly resolutions, the proposed method identifies causally influential predictors, prioritizes direct causes of SIE dynamics, reduces unnecessary features, and enhances computational efficiency. Experimental results show that incorporating causal inputs leads to improved prediction accuracy and interpretability across varying lead times. While demonstrated on Arctic SIE forecasting, the framework is broadly applicable to other dynamic, high-dimensional domains, offering a scalable approach that advances both the theoretical foundations and practical performance of causality-informed predictive modeling.

Check the full paper here: https://www.alphaxiv.org/abs/2509.09128

Join us in congratulating the authors on their hard work and getting their paper accepted by the IJCAI 2025 Workshop on AI for Time Series Analysis (AI4TS)

The Division of Institutional Equity joins the Mosaic Center and our many campus community members in recognizing and honoring Hispanic/Latine Heritage Month.

National Hispanic Heritage Month is observed each year in the U.S. from September 15 through October 15, celebrating the histories, traditions, achievements, and cultural diversity of Hispanic and Latine communities. At UMBC, our commitment to inclusive excellence means honoring the many cultures, voices, and traditions that enrich our community. This month, the Division of Institutional Equity invites you to engage! Join the UMBC-based programs by registering below. We invite you to engage further through our “Read, Watch, Listen, Participate” list to celebrate, connect, and explore.

Check out how the Mosaic Center is celebrating Hispanic and Latine Heritage Month to learn more about the history behind this celebration and discover community on campus.

To request accommodation(s) or to inquire about event accessibility, please get in touch with each program office directly. All sessions are open for full participation by all individuals regardless of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, or any other protected category under applicable federal law, state law, and the University's nondiscrimination policy.
 
Events on Campus
Join us at UMBC events throughout the month to connect, celebrate, and learn together.

Latinx Film Festival 
The Modern Languages, Linguistics, and Intercultural Communication department  is showing three movies as part of the celebration this month.

September 23 | 4 pm - 5:30 pm | Library and Gallery, Albin O. Kuhn: Gallery
Unapologetic: street art as activism and liberation https://my3.my.umbc.edu/groups/dreshercenter/events/143928

September 25 | 11:00 am - 1:00 pm | The Commons Mainstreet (in front of the Bookstore)
Hear Our Stories: Celebrating Hispanic & Latine/x Heritage Month

September 26 | 6 pm - 8 pm | Retrievers Activity Center
Balchata and salsa night https://my3.my.umbc.edu/groups/themosaic/events/144319

Read
Discover the following stories that celebrate the voices, creativity, and heritage of Hispanic and Latine communities, perfect for adding color and inspiration to your reading list.

• Nuestra américa (30 inspiring Latinas/Latinos who have shaped the United States)
• The Dreamer - Pam Muñoz Ryan 
• Once Upon a Quinceañera - Monica Gomez-Hira 
• The Turning Pointe - Vanessa L. Torres 
• The Invented Part - Rodrigo Fresán