Thomas Schaller, Political Science, on Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Politico

A new post by UMBC political science professor Thomas F. Schaller on Sabato’s Crystal Ball discusses the concept of election “drop-off” and why he expects it to benefit the Republican Party in the 2014 election. Schaller explains, “‘Drop-off’ is the political science term for the decline in turnout between the high-water benchmark of presidential elections and other electoral moments” such as “midterm elections for both chambers of Congress” and “state and local elections…held in non-presidential years.” Between 1964 and 2010, the average drop-off effect was 14%, with election turnouts ranging from 54.2% to 69.3% in presidential cycles and from 41.8% …