"Water Supply Planning in the National Capital Region: Forecasting Demands, Resource Availability, and System Reliability in a Changing Context"

UMBC: Center for Urban Environmental Research and Education

Spring 2026 Seminar Series 

virtually presents

Dr. Alimatou Seck

Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB)

"Water Supply Planning in the National Capital Region: Forecasting Demands, Resource Availability, and System Reliability in a Changing Context"

Friday, May 8, 2026

2:00 PM online

WebEx Link

This seminar is free and open to the public.

Abstract

The Washington DC metropolitan area is home to over 5 million residents who rely on the Potomac River for approximately 75% of their drinking water. Since the early 1980s, the three major water suppliers in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia have operated as a cooperative regional system to ensure reliable access to this shared resource. Despite significant population growth, water demand has remained essentially flat due to widespread adoption of water-saving fixtures and appliances. This talk presents findings from the 2025 Washington Metropolitan Area Water Supply Study, a comprehensive assessment of water demand and availability through 2050. Using demographic projections, climate scenarios, and reservoir simulation, we find that while water supplies will remain ample during most years, the system faces growing vulnerability under extreme drought conditions, with shortage probabilities rising to as much as 5% by 2050. Notably, across eight consecutive five-year planning studies spanning more than three decades, this is the first time near-term vulnerabilities have been identified, with results suggesting potential reliability challenges as early as 2030. Key drivers include population growth, rising upstream consumptive use, including from the expanding data center sector, and uncertainty in future Potomac River flows under changing meteorological conditions.

Bio

Dr. Alimatou Seck is Director of Operations for the Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP) at the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB), providing technical support to water suppliers in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. She is responsible for the day-to-day cooperative management of the regional water supply system, including drought monitoring and operations, reservoir release decisions, and stakeholder communications. Her recent work, spanning the intersection of science, operations, and policy, includes developing machine learning models for short-term urban water demand forecasting and assessing the water use impacts of emerging sectors such as data centers. Dr. Seck also serves as Vice President and Programming Chair for AWRA's National Capital Region Section. She holds a B.Sc. from Université Grenoble Alpes, an M.Eng. from Université Côte d'Azur, and a Ph.D. in Civil and Environmental Engineering from UMBC.

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This is the final seminar in our series this academic year. 

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Claire Welty
Director, Center for Urban Environmental Research and Education