talk 9/19: International Alliances in Cyber Conflict: An Attack Against All?

Alliances are living institutions that must adapt to changing geostrategic and technological realities to sustain their security prerogatives. While initially designed to respond to conventional military threats, alliances like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are now being tasked with extending their defensive commitments into cyberspace. Over the past decade, alliances have been quick to affirm their role in the digital domain, but it remains unclear what collective cybersecurity actually means or how it can be operationalized. Our research uses survey experiments of U.S. nationals to gauge alliance obligations in cybersecurity and how specific conditions or contexts may color the willingness to aid allies after destructive cyberattacks. We find that despite the novelty of cyber threats, there is robust support for assisting allies afflicted by cyber aggression. Treaty obligations carry motivating weight with respondents and can influence preferences when determining how to respond to a cyber incident. However, these reactions are also tempered by individual factors including familiarity with cybersecurity, and the identities of the specific countries involved. This finding is particularly significant when extended to the Indo-Pacific, where we explicitly test U.S. responses to a hypothetical Chinese cyberattack on U.S. allies and partners in the region. While still in its initial stages, this research agenda helps illuminate the distinct political challenges posed by cyber conflict and the obstacles that governments face in responding to technological threats.

Gregory H. Winger (Gregory.Winger@UMBC.edu) is an associate professor in UMBC's Political Science Department.  His research examines security cooperation and how collective security institutions like alliances are responding to the challenges of cyber conflict. His research has been featured as part of NATO’s annual conference on cyber conflict, and he has directly contributed to government initiatives on cyber education at the state, national, and international levels.  Dr. Winger is a former Fulbright Scholar to the Philippines and remains active in Indo-Pacific Affairs. His research has been included in NATO’s annual conference on cyber conflict, and he has directly contributed to government initiatives on cyber education at the state, national, and international levels.

Support for this event is provided by NSF under SFS grants DGE-1753681 and 2438185.